Stochastic Modelling of Annual Rainfall at New-Bussa

Abstract

This paper deals with the variations of annual rainfall in New- Bussa based on Markov Chain models. This principle was used to formulate a three state model for annual rainfall distribution in New- Bussa.The model is designed such that if given any of the three state in a given year, it is possible to determine quantitatively the probability of making transition to any other two states in the following year(s) and in the long-run. The result from the model shows that in the long-run 70% of the annual rainfall in New-Bussa will be State1, 27% will be state 2 and 3% of the annual rainfall will be State 3. The model could therefore be used to make a forecast of the annual rainfall pattern. This could provide some information for the Crop and Fish farmers, artisanal Fishermen , the Hydroelectric power generating station and the government that could be used to plan strategies to boost their production in New -Bussa and the environment