Sensitivity of the Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones of Nigeria to Climate Change.

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the sensitivity of Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones of Nigeria to climate change. Data used comprises of observed and simulated temperature and precipitation data. The observed data are that of Climate Research Unit (CRU TS 4.2) and the simulated data are that of CMIP5 both found in the Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute archive Known as KNMI database. Climate change analysis was performed based on three IPCC’s scenarios. Three climatic periods of (2019-2048), (2049-2078) and (2071-2100) with reference to two baseline periods of (1959-1988) and (1989-2018) were considered. Findings reveal that Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones of Nigeria is highly sensitive to climate change. This is noticed from the rise in temperature from 1oC in the first climatic period (2019-2048) to as high as 6oC in the third climatic period (2071-2100). Similar trend was observed for rainfall where there is increase in rainfall amount from 0.5mm/day to 2.5mm/day. This anticipated condition has serious implications on water resources, from increase in stream flow, rise in reservoirs, soil moisture changes and flooding.