Forecasting Election Results Using Least Square Method: The APC Buhariyya Regime.

Abstract

The subject of regression analysis concerns the study of relationship among variables for the purpose of constructing models for prediction and making other inferences. This research work develops a mathematical model equation that helps in forecasting election results using Least Square Regression. Data on 2015 Nigeria Presidential election results were sourced from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to validate the model and result revealed the global usefulness of the model with standard error of 49.46 and coefficient of determination 0.064. the equation of the fitted regression line is y=-0.226x+59.78, with slope of -0.226.