Seasonal Rainfall Modeling for Crop Production With Hidden Markov Model

Abstract

In this paper, a stochastic model is developed using the principle of Markov. The model divide a year into three seasons taking into account planting and maturity period of crops and rainfall distribution within seasons. The model predict next and subsequent seasonal rainfall states and their observations given the current state. The results from the model provides important information to the farmers and policy makers to plan strategies for high crop production in north central Nigeria.