Modelling of River Flow System: Issues for Water Resources Planning and Management, Nigeria

Abstract

Planning and management of water resources system in recent time predictably entail modeling. This has assisted to a great in understanding some hydrological process and river flow dynamics; however, there are still some flaws or bottlenecks arising from model error. Though, inherent limitation of models as representations of any real system is crystal clear, appropriateness of variables and their combination coupled with their mathematical relationships could bring closeness of model closer to real life system. Thus, stochastic approach to river flow system is better incorporated with possibility for nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity of the entire dynamics for determining an appropriate model structure. More importantly, since studies on nonlinear mechanism vis-à-vis conditional heterosdasticity in hydrological process has been very austere modeling data with time varying conditional variance could be attempted in various way using either the nonparametric or parametric approach in the context of integrated modeling and forecasting of hydrological process