IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT SPENDINGS AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN AGRICULTURE ON NIGERIA’s ECONOMY: Implications for Africa’s 2025 and 2063 Agenda

Abstract

Employing the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) static model, four economic impact simulations were undertaken, covering current situation and expected standards. These covers crop-based productivity of 4.75% and 20%; government spendings of 2% and 10% to represent current and best practices under each scenario. While the study noted that agricultural expenditure and crop productivities were below par compared to best practices, it established that enhanced total factor productivity for crop sub-sector and government expenditure impacted differently on various economic indicators. Export was the key beneficiary with significant impact of 39.7% and 46.4% under the total factor productivity and government spendings respectively, while prices were dampened with - 3.1% and -3.2% under both parameters respectively. Except for exchange rates and output prices which depreciated, other economic parameters appreciated. Looking beyond Vision 2020 therefore and towards meeting the continental agenda for 2025 and 2063, there is the need to enhance investments into the agriculture sector, through targeted innovative agribusiness financing and investments to complement budgetary sources. It also becomes imperative to enhance total factor productivity in the agriculture sector through technology driven, sustainably and affordable practices. It is also imperative to exploit the synergy among country visions, regional and continental agenda on agriculture investments and productivity enhancement, with the view to effectively harmonizing development efforts within the African continent, towards ensuring that the 21st Century is African Century