Multivariate Analysis of Dynamic Transmission of Coronavirus Disease with Control Measures in Nigeria.

Abstract

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS Cov-2), COVID-19 (Coronavirus) emerged in Wuhan in early Dec ember 2019 and then spread exponentially across the globe. Although, a series of prevention strategies such as (lockdown, social distancing, Hand Washing) have been enforced to control this pandemic. Based on the data issued by March 30, 2020 daily report, the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 so far has caused 693224 cases and resulted in 33106 deaths in more than 200 countries. Referring to the data reported, World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic. In this context, the purpose of the study is to analyse the dynamic transmission of coronavirus disease measures in Nigeria. Regression Analysis, General MANOVA and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were utilized. After applying regression analysis, the regression analysis gives a standard trend for both control and transmission dynamics. From the General MANOVA, we observe that all the test statistic signify that there is no significant influence of the vaccine on the Geopolitical zones since there values are greater than the p-values. Also from the Principal Component Analysis on Confirmed, Recovered, Death, Active Cases, Testing, First dose, Second dose and Population, we observed that the eigenvalue for the components Confirmed cases of COVID-19 have the largest eigenvalue thus, it implies that the 86% of the variable accounts for the total variation of the data set. It is also clear from the PCA we conclude that the recovery rates for all the states in Nigeria are significantly higher than the mortality rate. Hence, this also implies that the vaccine plays a vital rule in reducing the spread of the disease in addition to the preventive measures based on the data obtain from NCDC COVID-19 website | covid19.ncdc.gov.ng