Trends and growth rates in price of local rice in rural and Urban markets of Niger State (2000-2016)

Abstract

The study analyzed the trend and growth rates in prices of local rice in rural and urban markets of Niger State, secondary data, which was average monthly retailed prices per kg of local rice in the study area from January 2000 to December 2016 was used for the study. Data was sourced mainly from Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and exponential growth equation model, the E views software was used for the analysis. The result shows that the maximum price for rice per kg was N 259.63 and N 261.43, for local rice in rural and urban markets of the state respectively. The ADF unit root test shows that all the price series became stationary after taking the first difference, thus having an order of integration of I(1). The graph of the trend in the prices shows that a close relationship between the prices as they tend to move together in an upward and irregular pattern. The result of the exponential trend equation for the growth rate using the ATA period, shows an accelerated growth rates during the pre ATA period and the entire period. The study recommends that government should uphold it policy on increasing local rice production by providing necessary incentives and enabling environment for farmers.