Sensitivity Analysis of Suspected External Driving Factors Contributing to Land Use Land Cover Dynamics in Jos Plateau State, Nigeria

Abstract

Land use land cover change (LULCC) processes are directly or indirectly product of underlying causative factors playing out on the landscape. This study examines the contributing factors responsible for LULCC in Jos Plateau state using two different methods. The Analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and Binary models were used to prepare sixteen (16) suspected external driving factors (EDFs). Euclidean distance analysis was carried out on the proximity EDFs as well as reclassification based on AHP scale 1 – 9 and binary mode as 1 & 0. Saaty’s pairwise comparison matrix was employed to generate the weights for all the EDFs with a consistency index (CI) of 0.17was achieved. Suitability images were generated by multiplying each EDF with the corresponding weight. The fuzzy set membership standardization was carried out on the AHP image through sigmoidal function type with monotonically increasing membership function.The multiple regression technique was used to measure the sensitivity of each driver against the change period (1986 – 2019). The result shows that five (5) EDFs where consistent in both approaches (AHP & Binary). They are: distance to conflict areas, distance to major roads, LULC, distance to settlements and distance to river/ channels. It is therefore, appropriate to examine EDFs to know how each driver is contributing to the changing landscape in the study area. The findings has revealed the main factors driving LULC changes in the study area and has provided a reference frame for assisting in the development of sustainable land management and ecological protection policy making and decisions.