Multi-criteria risk assessment framework for components risk ranking –case study of complex oil and gas support structure

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a methodology for multi-criteria risk assessment aiming to overcome limitations of the conventional Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) where risk evaluation is performed at the higher-level considerations of Occurrence, Severity, and Detection. Breaking down these higher-level criteria to set of parameters and variables makes it possible to analyse to a greater detail the physical, environmental and process conditions of the components in response to activities of factors of biological, chemical and mechanical stresses. By adopting a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) structure, bias posed by subjectivity is constrained while fidelity, transparency and repeatability of the assessment is ensured. The method demonstrates the development and applicability of the proposed model, using the case study of an offshore oil and gas jacket support structure. The highlight of the paper is the demonstration of the capability of the model for time-dependent assessment which allows comparison between different states of the asset’s conditions through alteration in the risk profiles. The analysis conducted shows efficient applicability of the methods in the reference case study proving its relevance in similar class systems.