Analysis of Forty Three Years Rainfall Distribution Pattern as a Guide for the Enhancement of Water Usage and Agricultural Production in North–Central Nigeria.

Abstract

The year to year variation in agricultural yield in North Central part of Nigeria is majorly caused by rain, this is because larger percentage of the agricultural practices in that region is supported by rain i.e. rainfed agriculture. Rain schedule in this region is very unstable, especially with the present global climatic change. In this study, a monthly rainfall data from Ilorin Meteorological Station (Air Port) was analyzed to formulate appropriate model for prediction of monthly rainfall. ARIMA (1, 0, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 was found to be the appropriate model for the forecast. Although, the model could not accurately capture the peak monthly rainfall forecast as it reflects in fig. 9, however, it does give an ample information that can help decision makers establish strategies, priorities and proper use of water (rainfall) resources for North-Central Nigeria.