PREDICTION OF VEHICULAR ACCIDENTS ALONG LOKOJA-ABUJA-KADUNA EXPRESS WAY, NIGERIA, USING GREY-SYSTEM MODEL GM(1,1)

Abstract

The Lokoja-Abuja-Kaduna express way is one of the strategic roads that connect the northern and southern parts of the country. The express way, is one of the busiest roads in the country, because of high volume of vehicular movements on this road, hundreds of road accidents that mostly result in loss of many lives and properties are recorded every year. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that road traffic accident is one of the top causes of deaths worldwide. Hence, the need to assist the government with information that could be used to reduce the accident rate on this Express way becomes paramount. A Grey-System Model GM(1,1) for the prediction of vehicular accidents has been developed and implemented on Lokoja-Abuja-Kaduna Express Way, Nigeria. The data used in this research were collected from the archive of Federal Road Safety Corps of Nigeria for a period of ten years (2010-2019). The fitted model showed 85.97%accuracy, this indicates reliability of the model. Therefore, results from this model could be used for decision making process and policy formulation for road safety management