Dynamics of Global Agricultural Productivity and Democratic Governance Structure: Implications for Sustainable Food Supply

Abstract

Good governance leads to economic growth although most countries of the world lack it. Little attention had been given to isolate the effect of the governance system on agricultural productivity which necessitate this research. This research is a global study on the relationship between regime type and agricultural productivity drawing data from three main sources, namely, the Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU) (EIU, 2022), Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture (ERS-USDA, 2023) and FAOSTAT (2022). In order to account for variability within and across continents and regime type, the data was analysed using multilevel modelling techniques. A total of 14 models and scenarios were estimated in trying to isolate the continents and or regime types that could exacerbate or enhance global Total Factor Productivity (TFP). The results indicate that full democracy is practised in about 10% of the countries. TFP is highest in most countries that practice full democracy (FD) while it was lowest in countries under authoritarian regimes. From the results of the estimation of all the models, only agriculture contribution to GDP had about .45% impact on TFP over the period of this data. However, it would appear that changes to TFP is more likely to occur in countries within continents rather than in countries practicing similar regime type. The study further reveals that changes in the random intercepts and variances can trigger some positive improvement in TFP. The interesting part of the results are that imperfect regimes tend to have low or negative TFP, although, the effects are more persistent with authoritarian types. Therefore, political reforms also contribute to food systems and supply. A upward trend in TFP is desirable in order not to over-exploit our natural resources. In terms of which regime or continent caused the greatest variability; Asia is on top of the continents while authoritarian regimes are on top of the regime type. Hence, there is link between agricultural technology, productivity and democracy and investment in both political reforms and agricultural R&D are necessary for sustainable food systems and supply. The study recommends the institution of political reforms in countries operating imperfect democratic regimes to enhance investment in agricultural R&D especially in Africa, Asia and CIS. In addition, countries in Africa and those not practicing FD should work towards improving their TFP by at least 50% of the current level and translate the free resources to other sectors; particularly, food processing and supply chains; for greater efficiency and sustainable food systems and supply.