Uncertainty management in risk assessment of offshore energy structures

Abstract

Prioritization of component of an offshore system for intervention based on the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis technique is significantly influenced by the weights of criteria. Unfortunately, almost all known process of weight elicitation suffers one form of uncertainty or another. The situation becomes more challenging when finding weights for criteria considered in a generic sense: weights have to be adapted each time a new and different structure is investigated. This paper describes the process of dealing with such challenges and other sources of uncertainty in the MCDA process. First, it gives a clear interpretation of weight and proposes SWING methodology based on simplicity and transparency. The swing method reflects on the criterion-specific scores elicited for the alternative to determine appropriate weights for the criteria, thus is suitable for handling such a situation. The process is demonstrated in a case study of a wave energy converter for indicative purpose only. The result shows prospect for large scale application.