CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CEREALS PRODUCTIVITY IN KWARA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Cereal production in Nigeria has not kept pace with population increase. Climate change has impact on cereal production; this could be positive or negative. This study therefore examined the impact of climate change on cereals – maize, millet and sorghum in Kwara state (1991-2013). Trend analysis, co integration and error correction models were the analytical tools employed. The highest rainfall and temperature was observed in 1991 and 1996 respectively. The results obtained from co integration and error correction model indicate that there is long run and short run relationships between cereals yield (maize and millet) and annual rainfall and temperature. Maize output was positively affected by rainfall while rainfall had a negative relationship with millet output. This is because rainfall must have been in excess for millet production. Therefore farmers should be encouraged to produce more of maize and sorghum. Researches should be towards the development of adverse climate resistant varieties of cereals in the study area to meet the ever growing demand.