Analysis of Cassava Production Trend in Nigeria(1961-2014).

Abstract

This study focuses on forecasting the cultivated area, yield and production of cassava in Nigeria using spline models, linear, semi-log and growth models. Time Series data covering the period of 1961-2014 was used for the Study. The data were obtained from the Food and Agricultural Organisation Statistical database (FAOSTAT).Forecasting errors namely Mean error (ME), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Mean squared error (MSE), Root mean of the squared error (RSME), Theil’s inequality coefficient (U) and turning points were used as model selection criteria. The study showed that polynomial (spline) models were appropriate for predicting future estimates of cassava area, yield and production in Nigeria due to lowest values of the forecasting errors. The forecast values of cassava output depicted increasing trend, the result also shows cassava production forecast for the year 2035 to be about 110 milliontones. . r.studio packages was used in the analysis. R studio version 1.1.383 ( R studio team 2016).