Application of Parametric-Based Framework for Regionalisation of Flow Duration Curves.

Abstract

It is common knowledge that the end user of stream flow data may necessarily not have any prior knowledge of the quality control measures applied in their generation, therefore, conclusions drawn most often times may not be effective as desired. Thus, this study is an attempt at providing an independent quality construct to boost the confidence in the use of stream flow data by developing regional flow duration curves for selected ungauged stations of the upper Niger River Basin, Nigeria. Toward this end, stream flow data for seven gauging stations cover some sub basins in the Basin were obtained; precisely, monthly stream flow data covering a range of eleven to fifty- three years period. The flow duration curves from the gauging stations were fitted with three probability distribution models; i.e., logarithmic, power and exponential regression models. For the regionalisation, parameterisation was carried out in terms of the drainage area alone to allow for simplicity of models. Results obtained showed that the exponential regression model, in terms of Coefficient of Determination (R2) had the best fit. Though the regionalised model was simple, measurable agreement was obtained during the calibration and validation phases. However, considering the length of data used and probable variability in the stream flow regime, it is not possible to objectively generalise on the quality of the results. Against this backdrop, it suffices to take into cognisance the need to use an ensemble of catchment characteristics in the development of the flow duration curves and the overall regional models; this is important considering the implications of anthropogenic activities and hydro-climatic variations.